## Evidence for God from Probability

**The Power of Probability **

Once we know something about math, we can see something powerful about the nature of the universe and life on our planet. The problem is, learning enough about math to understand the power of the evidence! So, let’s take some time to examine the nature of probability and statistics.

**Reviewing Basic Mathematics**

Before we can understand the power of the Probability Argument for the Existence of God, we are going to need to review some very simple math so we can grasp the issues at hand (and sound really smart in front of our friends)!

**Odds and Probability**

Let’s start with something very simple: what are the odds of flipping a quarter and having it land “head’s up”? Well, the quarter has two sides, so there is a 50/50 chance that a single flip will produce a “head’s up” result. Here’s another way to state the problem:

*½ of the quarter’s faces are “heads” and ½ of the quarter’s faces are “tails”*

*There is a 50% / 50% chance of flipping either a “heads” or a “tails”*

No let’s make it a bit more interesting. What do you think the odds are of us flipping the quarter TWICE and getting TWO “Head’s up” results? This is a little more difficult than getting a single “head’s up” result, because in any two flips of the coin, there are four possibilities:

*1) Heads / Heads 2) Heads / Tails 3) Tails / Heads 4) Tails / Tails*

So, how do we calculate something like this? How do we figure the odds of getting two “heads” in a row? Well, one way to see the problem is to create a math problem based on the percentage of sides that are “heads” on each quarter”:

*Chance of getting “heads” on first flip x Chance of getting “heads” on second flip*

* ½ x ½*

* ½ x ½ = ¼*

* (Since each flip is an independent occurrence)*

One half multiplied by one half is one quarter; there is a 25% chance of flipping two “heads” in a row. We simply multiply one probability against the other. Pretty simple, right? OK, so let’s see if you get the idea here. How would we determine the probability of flipping FOUR “heads” in a row? You probably guessed it:

*½ x ½ x ½ x ½ = 1/16*

**The Nature of Fractions**

There is a 1/16th or a 6.25% chance of flipping four “heads” in a row! Now did you notice something here? What happens when the denominator (the bottom part) of a fraction increases in size? When the denominator increases, the number itself actually gets SMALLER. 1/16 is smaller than 1/2! Does that make sense?

**Exponents**

OK, we need another math refresher for you before we get to the point of all of this. Let’s talk about exponents. Remember your old high school math? Then this should look familiar:

*10 x 10 = 100 or 10 ^{1} x 10^{1} = 10^{1+1} = 10^{2} or 100*

So, 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 = 10^{1} x 10^{1} x 10^{1} x 10^{1} = 10^{1+1+1+1} = 10^{4} or 10,000

Remember that when we multiply numbers with the same BASE but with differing EXPONENTS, we simply ADD the exponents! The same thing happens, even when this exponent occurs in the denominator!

*1/10 x 1/100 = 1/10 ^{1} x 1/10^{2} = 10^{1+2} = 1/10^{3}*

**Statistical Zero**

OK, so let’s put everything we’ve learned together to understand perhaps the MOST IMPORTANT thing to remember and take away from this investigation. It’s important to know that statisticians believe that there is a fractional threshold that, when reached, means that we are really at what is called “Statistical Zero”. If you have a fraction this small, you are really at zero for all practical purposes. So what is this number that statisticians believe to be ‘Statistical Zero”? Here it is:

*1/10 ^{50}
(1/100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000)
(0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001)
Statistical 0
0% Chance*

0% Chance

This is an important number to remember, because when the odds of something happening reach this number, you can effectively say that there is a ZERO percent chance of it happening at all. That’s important to know as we start to examine the probability of life occurring in our universe…

**What Life Requires**

OK, now let’s take all that math we just learned (or re-learned) and put it to good use. Let’s examine the nature of life in the universe. Let’s face it; life requires certain universal constants to be in place before it can flourish. There are certain requirements related to the nature of our galaxy and the nature of our planet that must be in place before life can even exist!

Let’s look at just one of these requirements. Did you know that the sun is 93 million miles from Earth? Did you know that if our planet was just 15,000 miles closer or farther from the sun, no life could exist on Earth? Now, think about all the different distances that our planet could be from the sun. There are trillions of possibilities in which the planet could be too close, and trillions more that it could be too far! What are the odds that we would be in just the right location? If I were to randomly toss our planet into our solar system, what are the chances that I would place it in the 30,000 mile range that makes life possible to exist? Are the chances one in a million (1/1,000,000 or 1/106)? The odds are probably far greater, aren’t they? How about one in a trillion (1/1,000,000,000 or 1/109)? Let’s do something crazy here; let’s say that the chances are one in ten. I know that’s not possible (it’s like saying that we could randomly toss Earth into the Solar System and it would land in the perfect location about one in every ten tosses), but go with me on this for a minute, OK?

The distance from the sun is not the only factor involved in the existence of life here on planet Earth. There are many more universal constants that are required to be perfectly fine-tuned before life can exist. Let’s take a look at a PARTIAL list:

Requirements Related to the Universe and Our Galaxy

Correct local abundance and distribution of dark matter

Correct relative abundances of different exotic mass particles

Correct decay rates of different exotic mass particles

Correct density of quasars

Correct density of giant galaxies in the early universe

Correct galaxy cluster size

Correct galaxy cluster density

Correct galaxy cluster location

Correct galaxy size

Correct galaxy type

Correct galaxy mass distribution

Correct size of galactic central bulge

Correct galaxy location

Correct variability of local dwarf galaxy absorption rate

Correct quantity of galactic dust

Correct giant star density in galaxy

Correct frequency of gamma ray bursts in galaxy

Correct star location relative to galactic center

Correct star distance from co-rotation circle of galaxy

Correct ratio of inner dark halo mass to stellar mass for galaxy

Correct star distance from closest spiral arm

Correct z-axis extremes of star’s orbit

Correct proximity of solar nebula to a normal type I supernova eruption

Correct timing of solar nebula formation relative to a normal type I supernova eruption

Correct proximity of solar nebula to a type II supernova eruption

Correct timing of solar nebula formation relative to type II supernova eruption

Correct timing of hypernovae eruptions

Correct number of hypernovae eruptions

Correct masses of stars that become hypernovae

Correct flux of cosmic ray protons

Correct variability of cosmic ray proton flux

Correct gas dispersal rate by companion stars, shock waves, and molecular cloud expansion in the Sun’s birthing star cluster

Correct number of stars in birthing cluster

Correct density of brown dwarfs

Correct number of giant galaxies in galaxy cluster

Correct number of large galaxies in galaxy cluster

Correct number of dwarf galaxies in galaxy cluster

Correct distance of galaxy’s corotation circle from center of galaxy

Correct rate of diffusion of heavy elements from galactic center out to the galaxy’s corotation circle

Correct outward migration of star relative to galactic center

Correct degree to which exotic matter self interacts

Correct average quantity of gas infused into the universe’s first star clusters

Correct level of supersonic turbulence in the infant universe

Correct number and sizes of intergalactic hydrogen gas clouds in galaxy’s vicinity

Correct average longevity of intergalactic hydrogen gas clouds in galaxy’s vicinity

Correct avoidance of apsidal phase locking in the orbits of planets in the planetary system

Correct number density of the first metal-free stars to form in the universe

Correct epoch during which the first metal-free stars form in cosmic history

Correct average circumstellar medium density for white dwarf red giant pairs

Correct number densities of metal-poor and extremely metal-poor galaxies

Correct rate of growth of central spheroid for the galaxy

Correct amount of gas infalling into the central core of the galaxy

Correct level of cooling of gas infalling into the central core of the galaxy

Correct heavy element abundance in the intracluster medium for the early universe

Correct rate of infall of intergalactic gas into emerging and growing galaxies during first five billion years of cosmic history

Correct pressure of the intra-galaxy-cluster medium

Correct proximity of solar nebula to a type I supernova whose core underwent significant gravitational collapse before carbon deflagration

Correct timing of solar nebula formation relative to a type I supernova whose core underwent significant gravitational collapse before carbon deflagrataion

Correct sizes of largest cosmic structures in the universe

Correct level of spiral substructure in spiral galaxy

Correct supernova eruption rate when galaxy is young

Correct zrange of rotation rates for stars are on the verge of becoming supernovae

Correct quantity of dust formed in the ejecta of Population III supernovae

Correct chemical composition of dust ejected by Population III stars

Correct time in cosmic history when the merging of galaxies peaks

Correct density of extragalactic intruder stars in solar neighborhood

Correct density of dust-exporting stars in solar neighborhood

Correct average rate of increase in galaxy sizes

Correct change in average rate of increase in galaxy sizes throughout cosmic history

Correct proximity of solar nebula to asymptotic giant branch stars

Correct timing of solar nebula formation relative to its close approach to asymptotic giant branch stars Correct quantity and proximity of gamma-ray burst events relative to emerging solar nebula

Correct proximity of superbubbles to planetary system during life epoch of life-support planet

Correct proximity of strong ultraviolet emitting stars to planetary system during life epoch of life-support planet

Correct quantity and proximity of galactic gamma-ray burst events relative to time window for intelligent life

Correct timing of star formation peak for the universe

Correct timing of star formation peak for the galaxy

Correct mass of the galaxy’s central black hole

Correct timing of the growth of the galaxy’s central black hole

Correct rate of in-spiraling gas into galaxy’s central black hole during life epoch

Correct distance from nearest giant galaxy

Correct distance from nearest Seyfert galaxy

Correct amount of mass loss by star in its youth

Correct rate of mass loss of star in its youth

Correct rate of mass loss by star during its middle age

Correct quantity of magnetars (proto-neutron stars with very strong magnetic fields) produced during galaxy’s history

Correct variation in coverage of star’s surface by faculae

Correct ratio of galaxy’s dark halo mass to its baryonic mass

Correct ratio of galaxy’s dark halo mass to its dark halo core mass

Correct galaxy cluster formation rate

Correct proximity of supernovae and hypernovae throughout history of planet and planetary system

Correct tidal heating from neighboring galaxies

Correct tidal heating from dark galactic and galaxy cluster halos

Correct intensity and duration of galactic winds

Correct density of dwarf galaxies in vicinity of home galaxy

Correct amount of photoevaporation during planetary formation from parent star and other nearby stars

Requirements Related to the Solar System

Correct number and mass of planets in system suffering significant drift

Correct orbital inclinations of companion planets in system

Correct variation of orbital inclinations of companion planets

Correct inclinations and eccentricities of nearby terrestrial planets

Correct in-spiral rate of stars into black holes within parent galaxy

Correct strength of magnetocentrifugally launched wind of parent star during its protostar era

Correct degree to which the atmospheric composition of the planet departs from thermodynamic equilibrium

Correct delivery rate of volatiles to planet from asteroid-comet belts during epoch of planet formation

Correct amount of outward migration of Neptune

Correct amount of outward migration of Uranus

Correct star formation rate in parent star vicinity during history of that star

Correct variation in star formation rate in parent star vicinity during history of that star

Correct birth date of the star-planetary system

Correct number of stars in system

Correct number and timing of close encounters by nearby stars

Correct proximity of close stellar encounters

Correct masses of close stellar encounters

Correct distance from nearest black hole

Correct absorption rate of planets and planetismals by parent star

Correct star age

Correct star metallicity

Correct ratio of 40K, 235,238U, 232Th to iron in star-planetary system

Correct star orbital eccentricity

Correct star mass

Correct star luminosity change relative to speciation types & rates

Correct star color

Correct star rotation rate

Correct rate of change in star rotation rate

Correct star magnetic field

Correct star magnetic field variability

Correct stellar wind strength and variability

Correct short period variation in parent star diameter

Correct star’s carbon to oxygen ratio

Correct star’s space velocity relative to Local Standard of Rest

Correct star’s short term luminosity variability

Correct star’s long term luminosity variability

Correct amplitude and duration of star spot cycle

Correct number & timing of solar system encounters with interstellar gas clouds and cloudlets

Correct galactic tidal forces on planetary system

Correct H3+ production

Correct supernovae rates & locations

Correct white dwarf binary types, rates, & locations

Correct structure of comet cloud surrounding planetary system

Correct polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon abundance in solar nebula

Correct mass of Neptune

Correct total mass of Kuiper Belt asteroids

Correct mass distribution of Kuiper Belt asteroids

Correct injection efficiency of shock wave material from nearby supernovae into collapsing molecular cloud that forms star and planetary system

Correct number and sizes of planets and planetesimals consumed by star

Correct variations in star’s diameter

Correct level of spot production on star’s surface

Correct variability of spot production on star’s surface

Correct mass of outer gas giant planet relative to inner gas giant planet

Correct Kozai oscillation level in planetary system

Correct reduction of Kuiper Belt mass during planetary system’s early history

Correct efficiency of stellar mass loss during final stages of stellar burning

Correct number, mass, and distance from star of gas giant planets in addition to planets of the mass and distance of Jupiter and Saturn

Requirements Related to Planet Earth

Correct planetary distance from star

Correct inclination of planetary orbit

Correct axis tilt of planet

Correct rate of change of axial tilt

Correct period and size of axis tilt variation

Correct planetary rotation period

Correct rate of change in planetary rotation period

Correct planetary revolution period

Correct planetary orbit eccentricity

Correct rate of change of planetary orbital eccentricity

Correct rate of change of planetary inclination

Correct period and size of eccentricity variation

Correct period and size of inclination variation

Correct precession in planet’s rotation

Correct rate of change in planet’s precession

Correct number of moons

Correct mass and distance of moon

Correct surface gravity (escape velocity)

Correct tidal force from sun and moon

Correct magnetic field

Correct rate of change & character of change in magnetic field

Correct albedo (planet reflectivity)

Correct density density of interstellar and interplanetary dust particles in vicinity of life-support planet

Correct reducing strength of planet’s primordial mantle

Correct thickness of crust

Correct timing of birth of continent formation

Correct oceans-to-continents ratio

Correct rate of change in oceans to continents ratio

Correct global distribution of continents

Correct frequency, timing, & extent of ice ages

Correct frequency, timing, & extent of global snowball events

Correct silicate dust annealing by nebular shocks

Correct asteroidal & cometary collision rate

Correct change in asteroidal & cometary collision rates

Correct rate of change in asteroidal & cometary collision rates

Correct mass of body colliding with primordial Earth

Correct timing of body colliding with primordial Earth

Correct location of body’s collision with primordial Earth

Correct position & mass of Jupiter relative to Earth

Correct major planet eccentricities

Correct major planet orbital instabilities

Correct drift and rate of drift in major planet distances

Correct number & distribution of planets

Correct distance of gas giant planets from mean motion resonances

Correct orbital separation distances among inner planets

Correct oxygen quantity in the atmosphere

Correct nitrogen quantity in the atmosphere

Correct carbon monoxide quantity in the atmosphere

Correct chlorine quantity in the atmosphere

Correct aerosol particle density emitted from the forests

Correct cobalt quantity in the earth’s crust

Correct arsenic quantity in the earth’s crust

Correct copper quantity in the earth’s crust

Correct boron quantity in the earth’s crust

Correct cadmium quantity in the earth’s crust

Correct calcium quantity in the earth’s crust

Correct flourine quantity in the earth’s crust

Correct iodine quantity in the earth’s crust

Correct magnesium quantity in the earth’s crust

Correct nickel quantity in crust

Correct phosphorus quantity in crust

Correct potassium quantity in crust

Correct tin quantity in crust

Correct zinc quantity in crust

Correct molybdenum quantity in crust

Correct vanadium quantity in crust

Correct chromium quantity in crust

Correct selenium quantity in crust

Correct iron quantity in oceans

Correct tropospheric ozone quantity

Correct stratospheric ozone quantity

Correct mesospheric ozone quantity

Correct water vapor level in atmosphere

Correct oxygen to nitrogen ratio in atmosphere

Correct quantity of greenhouse gases in atmosphere

Correct quantity of greenhouse gases in atmosphere

Correct rate of change in greenhouse gases in atmosphere

Correct poleward heat transport in atmosphere by mid-latitude storms

Correct quantity of forest & grass fires

Correct quantity of sea salt aerosols in troposphere

Correct soil mineralization

Correct quantity of anaeorbic bacteria in the oceans

Correct quantity of aerobic bacteria in the oceans

Correct quantity of anaerobic nitrogen-fixing bacteria in the early oceans

Correct quantity, variety, and timing of sulfate-reducing bacteria

Correct quantity of geobacteraceae

Correct quantity of aerobic photoheterotrophic bacteria

Correct quantity of decomposer bacteria in soil

Correct quantity of mycorrhizal fungi in soil

Correct quantity of nitrifying microbes in soil

Correct quantity & timing of vascular plant introductions

Correct quantity, timing, & placement of carbonate-producing animals

Correct quantity, timing, & placement of methanogens

Correct phosphorus and iron absorption by banded iron formations

Correct quantity of soil sulfur

Correct ratio of electrically conducting inner core radius to radius of the adjacent turbulent fluid shell

Correct ratio of core to shell (see above) magnetic diffusivity

Correct magnetic Reynold’s number of the shell (see above)

Correct elasticity of iron in the inner core

Correct electromagnetic Maxwell shear stresses in the inner core

Correct core precession frequency for planet

Correct rate of interior heat loss for planet

Correct quantity of sulfur in the planet’s core

Correct quantity of silicon in the planet’s core

Correct quantity of water at subduction zones in the crust

Correct quantity of high pressure ice in subducting crustal slabs

Correct hydration rate of subducted minerals

Correct water absorption capacity of planet’s lower mantle

Correct tectonic activity

Correct rate of decline in tectonic activity

Correct volcanic activity

Correct rate of decline in volcanic activity

Correct location of volcanic eruptions

Correct continental relief

Correct viscosity at Earth core boundaries

Correct viscosity of lithosphere

Correct thickness of mid-mantle boundary

Correct rate of sedimentary loading at crustal subduction zones

Correct biomass to comet infall ratio

Correct regularity of cometary infall

Correct number, intensity, and location of hurricanes

Correct intensity of primordial cosmic superwinds

Correct number of smoking quasars

Correct formation of large terrestrial planet in the presence of two or more gas giant planets

Correct orbital stability of large terrestrial planet in the presence of two or more gas giant planets

Correct total mass of Oort Cloud objects

Correct mass distribution of Oort Cloud objects

Correct air turbulence in troposphere

Correct quantity of sulfate aerosols in troposphere

Correct quantity of actinide bioreducing bacteria

Correct quantity of phytoplankton

Correct hydrothermal alteration of ancient oceanic basalts

Correct quantity of iodocarbon-emitting marine organisms

Correct location of dislocation creep relative to diffusion creep in and near the crust-mantle boundary (determines mantle convection dynamics)

Correct size of oxygen sinks in the planet’s crust

Correct size of oxygen sinks in the planet’s mantle

Correct mantle plume production

Correct average rainfall precipitation

Correct variation and timing of average rainfall precipitation

Correct atmospheric transparency

Correct atmospheric pressure

Correct atmospheric viscosity

Correct atmospheric electric discharge rate

Correct atmospheric temperature gradient

Correct carbon dioxide level in atmosphere

Correct rates of change in carbon dioxide levels in atmosphere throughout the planet’s history

Correct rates of change in water vapor levels in atmosphere throughout the planet’s history

Correct rate of change in methane level in early atmosphere

Correct Q-value (rigidity) of planet during its early history

Correct variation in Q-value of planet during its early history

Correct migration of planet during its formation in the protoplanetary disk

Correct viscosity gradient in protoplanetary disk

Correct frequency of late impacts by large asteroids and comets

Correct size of the carbon sink in the deep mantle of the planet

Correct ratio of dual water molecules, (H2O)2, to single water molecules, H 2O, in the troposphere

Correct quantity of volatiles on and in Earth-sized planet in the habitable zone

Correct triggering of El Nino events by explosive volcanic eruptions

Correct time window between the peak of kerogen production and the appearance of intelligent life

Correct time window between the production of cisterns in the planet’s crust that can effectively collect and store petroleum and natural gas and the appearance of intelligent life

Correct efficiency of flows of silicate melt, hypersaline hydrothermal fluids, and hydrothermal vapors in the upper crust

Correct efficiency of ocean pumps that return nutrients to ocean surfaces

Correct sulfur and sulfate content of oceans

Correct orientation of continents relative to prevailing winds

Correct infall of buckminsterfullerenes from interplanetary and interstellar space upon surface of planet

Correct quantity of silicic acid in the oceans

Correct heat flow through the planet’s mantle from radiometric decay in planet’s core

Correct water absorption by planet’s mantle

OK, each requirement on this partial list of universal constants (322 constants listed here) is highly unlikely to occur at random or by chance. In fact, we could assign odds to each requirement in the same way that we assigned odds to the correct location of Earth relative to the Sun. Scientists and experts have already assigned statistic probabilities for each of these requirements and they range anywhere from 1 in 10 (1/101) to 1 in 1000 (1/103). But let’s be very generous here. Let’s say that each and every one of these terrestrial, solar system and galactic requirement has a 1 in 10 (1/101) chance of happening naturally; let’s assign this 1 in 10 (1/101) probability to each and every one of these 322 requirements, even though scientists say that the odds are much greater.

Now, do you remember how we calculated the odds of flipping four consecutive “heads” in a row? We took the probability or each flip and multiplied it against each other: ½ x ½ x ½ x ½ = 1/16. How then, would we calculate the odds of a planet like earth (supporting the life that it supports) existing in our universe? You guessed it; we simply multiply the odds since the events are independent of each and every one of the 322 requirements occurring naturally!

*1/10 ^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1} x 1/10^{1}*

*=
1/10 ^{322}
=
1/100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,*

*000,000,000,000,000,000,000*

,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,

,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,

*000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,*

000,000,000,000,

000,000,000,000,

*000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,*

*000,000,0*

00,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,

00,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,

*000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00*

0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,

0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,

*000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000*

This means that there is less than 1 chance in 1 million trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion exists that even one planet like earth could ever exist and support life as earth supports it if the only mechanisms available are natural mechanisms. Now remember how statisticians define what is known as “statistical zero”:

*1/10 ^{50} = Statistical Zero*

Now look at the (very generous) odds we’ve just calculated for the existence of a life-bearing planet like Earth existing in a star system like ours and a galaxy like ours:

*1/10 ^{322} = 10^{272} Times Less Likely than Statistical Zero*

**It’s Statistically Impossible**

Do you see the problem here? Based on the statistical probability of the universal constants described here, it’s pretty clear that a planet like earth simply should not exist! If natural causes are the only factors involved here, the odds are just prohibitively small. Earth simply cannot exist if natural causes are the only forces in the universe. The ONLY way to account for the Earth’s existence is to introduce a supernatural cause that can overcome the tremendous improbability. Here is another way to put it:

The Statistical Probability Argument:

1) Statisticians Agree that When the Probability of an Event Reaches *1/10 ^{50}* the Odds of the Event’s Occurrence Are “Statistically ZERO”

2) The Odds of the NATURAL Existence of a Life Supporting Planet Like Earth are Less than 1/10322 (10272 Times Less Likely than “Statistical Zero”), Yet the Earth Exists and Supports Life

3) For This Reason, the Existence of a Life Supporting Planet Like Earth (Which CANNOT Be Attributed to Natural Forces or Causes), Must Be the Result of Supernatural Intervention

4) The Supernatural Intervening Cause (God) of Our Universe, Galaxy and Planet Must Exist

**Compelling Statistics (and a Compelling Demonstration)**

The odds are pretty long against the ‘natural’ existence of a life bearing planet like the one we live on. In fact, you can now see exactly how long the odds are! The ‘long odds’ against our existence are yet another argument for the existence of a supernatural first cause, able to intervene and create a scenario in which life can exist.

If we really take the time to think about it, we can quickly see how unreasonable it would be to assume something is true in spite of the tremendously prohibitive odds against it being true. Let’s say that I was to tell you that I was going to repeatedly flip a coin and hope to come up with a sequence of all heads. Let’s imagine that I begin by flipping the coin for the first time, and after it lands in my palm, I quickly cover it with the other hand. Then imagine that I take a guarded peek at the coin and announce, “heads” without showing it to you. Then I quickly repeat the process, again guarding the result and announcing, “heads” for a second time (and again without showing the quarter to you). Let’s say I continue to do this for ten more flips, each time covering the coin quickly and claiming that I have “heads”, but never showing you the result. At some point are you going to stop me and demand to see the coin? At some point are you going to begin to doubt that I have that many consecutive “heads” and demand for me to show you the coin each time I flip it? Why would you begin to get suspicious? Why would you doubt me?

Well, you would be wise to doubt me because you already understand enough about “odds” to know that the chance of my flipping that many “heads” in a row is statistically improbable! Remember our calculations related to the quarter flipping? Well, here is how we would calculate the odds of flipping ten “heads” in a row:

*½ x ½ x ½ x ½ x ½ x ½ x ½ x ½ x ½ x ½ = 1/2 ^{10} = 1/1024*

There’s a one in 1,024 chance of getting ten heads in a row. That’s why you were getting so suspicious about my being able to achieve such a feat. You knew the long odds. You knew that it was simply not reasonable to assume that I could beat these odds when the probability was 1/210! OK, so if you are suspicious about my telling the truth in this simple example where the probability is 1/210 against my telling the truth, how much more suspicious should you be when someone tells you that the universe and our planet came to support life as the result of purely natural processes when the odds against this truth are 1/10322? Why is it that you would be quick to doubt me when I claim to flip a quarter the same way ten times in a row, but slow to doubt those who would try to convince you that life exists here on earth as the result of something OTHER than Divine Intervention?

The reality is that the most reasonable inference from the evidence of statistical probabilities is that we live on a planet that shouldn’t be here except for the fact that something or someone OUTSIDE the natural realm made it possible for us to be here. The evidence points to a creator God who is able to transcend the ‘long odds’.

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